- July 7, 2021
- Posted by: Stephane Tajick
- Category: Competitive Research Analysis
The migration business has always had clear trends. And one of those is participation in programs by nationality.
Hong Kong nationals show the highest likelihood of participation. But wealth set aside, Vietnamese investors rival those from Hong Kong in migrant numbers.
Isn’t Participation Measured by Wealth?
That’s one form of measurement.
That would be the likelihood of a country to produce migrants from a specific amount of population.
For example, one country with a population of 20 million might produce 20 applications. That would be 1 applicant per 1 million.
Another country might produce 50 applicants, but with a 25 million population. That would be 0.5 applications per 1 million.
That would make the second country less likely to show participation in RCBI programs.
We’ll present two values below. The first are absolute, showing raw participation rates per million.
The second set of values will show those numbers adjusted for GDP per capita.
Why? It’s because purchasing power affects how interested a country might be.
For example, two countries might have the same likelihood of participation (say 2 applicants per million).
But, the first country might have double the GDP of the second. This puts financial hurdles on the second country.
So if the second country shows the same number of applicants per million, then this makes it twice as interested as the higher GDP one.
First – Raw Participation Rates
The values below factor in the year 2015 to 2019 (pandemic related values were excluded for now).
The top 8 nationalities are as follows (by million):
- Hong Kong (190.1)
- South Korea (121.5)
- UK (88.5)
- Turkey (88.4)
- Taiwan (84.5)
- Malaysia (58.3)
- China (40.6)
- Mexico (30.6)
Hong Kong takes the lead for raw participation values, and by a wide margin. Next come South Korea, followed by UK and Turkey.
The latter two are surprising, especially since they’re seen as large recipients of migrants.
Also, Vietnam doesn’t show up in top spot on this list. As we mentioned at the start, Vietnam does have high participation rates.
However, those participation rates will show up when the values are GDP adjusted.
Second – GDP Adjusted Values
The top 8 for the adjustments are as follows:
- Vietnam (10.1)
- Turkey (5.8)
- Malaysia (5.7)
- Bangladesh (5.3)
- Pakistan (4.7)
- South Africa (4.4)
- South Korea (4)
- Hong Kong (3.9)
With those adjustment, Vietnam takes the lead by a wide margin. Also, Hong Kong now ranks eighth instead of first.
The reason for that is the wide disparity between Hong Kong’s and Vietnam’s GDPs.
Hong Kong has almost 18 times the GDP of Vietnam, which heavily skews the results in favor of it (through absolute numbers).
But Why is GDP Adjustment Important?
This comes down to affordability.
The best way to gauge likelihood of participation is by assuming everyone has equal access to migration funds.
Doing so requires adjustment for GDP. It helps us better see how much a nationality would explore RCBI programs.
And while it is an imperfect adjustment, it does eliminate an element of bias from the final results.